Since 1999, there has been an annual draft. Although the first few years were a bit different because of expansion, it wasn’t until 2004 that everything was established. Due to a computer malfunction – the files may yet be found – but we only possess records of the BDB Draft going back to 2005.
One of the questions to ask is, are we getting better at drafting players? When I ask this question, I am not speaking for any individual team but for the league as a whole. Are we as a league getting better at mining the best players that are available to us?
In order to figure this out, using WAR (some may hate it, but it is the most efficient number to work with) – the Commish’s office has gone back and plotted every single draft pick from 2005. Yes – EVERY pick.
Several variables were used to make this calculation.
- Every First Round Player was counted – and their career WAR was recorded – see exceptions below.
- Every other round (2nd to 15th) player whose career WAR exceeded 10 WAR was considered.
- Relief pitchers were not counted for these calculations.
- Players who had exceeded their rookie MLB qualifications or who played regularly several years in MLB before being drafted into BDB were also ignored. Examples of this are Jose Reyes, Jose Ramirez and Nelson Cruz.
- Only years up to 2019 have been counted, as there wasn’t at least five years of playing time used to get a somewhat consistent calculation.
The calculation is straightforward – First Round Career War Selections divided by the Total Career WAR available in that Year’s draft. By this percentage, we can assess whether or not we are getting better or worse. So with all that said – here are the results
If you’re having trouble reading the graph – the answer is a resounding “Yes”. The earlier years from 2005 to 2013 seem to be a crap shoot. The worst draft years were 2013, 2006, 2008, 2005, and 2014 – with 2005, our first year – unsurprisingly, being the worst draft year. In 2005 – the first pick was Felix Hernandez – a worthwhile pick – however, he was followed up with Jeremy Hermida, Zach Duke and Jeremy Francoeur. Matt Cain, Prince Fielder and Ryan Zimmerman were other notables in the first round. Now, who was left out of the first round? Only Justin Verlander (2nd Round), Brian McCann (2), Robinson Cano (3), Hanley Ramirez (8), Adrian Gonzalez (12) and Adam Wainwright (15).
Ever since 2014 – the Owners of BDB seem to be doing much better in their drafting; in fact, the most recent season, 2022, which wasn’t included in these results, has the highest WAR from the results of both 2022 and 2023 of all time.
Look for more graphs and stories to come – including a rating of all BDD Team’s draft performance.