Expected by all, Respected by Some, Hated by Madawaska – WAR Predictions

For these early season predictions, WAR Record will be provided first, followed by the results of 50 season sims, using optimum lineups, created by me.  The most difficult part of the programmed lineups is the reliver usage.  The computer doesn’t favor starters in relieving roles, so it tends to push relievers to be used an awful lot.

The WAR Record and 50 Season Sims are identical except for two teams, which are Ottawa and Montreal.  It can’t be said enough, good managing during a close season can make all the difference.

Here are the results:

Robinson Division                                   WAR Record                         50 Sim Season Avg Record

Bristol94-68101-61
Montreal85-7786-76
Ottawa82-8089-73
Beaconsfield70-9260-92

Bristol:  Top Offence in league and best pitching in division gives this team an easy walk to the playoffs.  Playoff Chances:  100%.  Pennant Win:  96%.   Wildcard:  4%.

Montreal:  Third best offense, not so good pitching put this team in a place of “a lot of different scenarios can develop.   Playoff Chances:  52%.  Pennant Win:  2%. Wildcard: 50%.

Ottawa:  Second best pitching in league gives this team a fighting chance to defend their crown.  Playoff Chances:  72% .  Pennant Win:  2%.  Wildcard:  70%.

Beaconsfield:  Rebuilding for over 20 years.  No chance at nothing.  In a three-team race for top pick.

Jenkins Division                                       War Record                 50 Sim Season Avg Record

Langley95-6798-64
Hamilton86-7688-74
Madawaska79-8382-80
North Bay69-9355-107

Langley:  Second best offence matched with top pitching staff makes this team a favored for a BDB Championship.  Playoff Chances:  96%  Pennant Win:  86%.  Wildcard:  10%.

Hamilton:  Decent offense matched with solid staff gives this team a strong shot at playoffs.  Playoff Chances:  60%  Pennant Win:  12%.  Wildcard:  48%.

Madawaska:  Middle of the road offense with very shaky pitching staff gives this team a minimal chance at playoff success, but some chance is better than no chance.  Playoff Chances:  14%.  Pennant Win:  2%.  Wildcard:  12%.

North Bay:  Another sad sack season expected for Trappers.  Zero chance at playoffs with excellent chance at top three pick.

Walker Division                                    War Record                              50 Season Sim Avg Record     

Nassau84-7889-73
Yorkshire78-8486-76
Sacramento76-8676-86
Stittsville73-8961-101

Nassau:  Big off-season leaves team in good playoff opportunity.  Better than average hitting, and pitching gives these Sharks teeth to win.  Playoff Chances:  72%.  Pennant Win:  68%.  Wildcard: 4%

Yorkshire:  Surprising effectual offense balanced by inferior pitching staff gives team a small chance at playoffs.  Playoff Chances:  46%.  Division Chances:  30%.  Wildcard:  16%

Sacramento:  Low scoring offense and second-best pitching in division, give this team, an once of prayer making it out of the regular season.  Playoff Chances:  6%.  Pennant Win:  2%  Wildcard:  4%.

Stiitsville:  New team with new owner, doesn’t make big splash … yet.  Gets top 3 pick in loaded draft next season. Their pitching is better than Beaconsfield and North Bay’s though.  Playoff Chances:  0%